War and Expansion: Russian Foreign Policy and Predictions on Its Next Direction

Abstract

The twenty-first century has been marked by escalating geopolitical instability, with conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and Sudan contributing to a broader atmosphere of global uncertainty. Against this backdrop, Russia’s foreign policy trajectory has become an increasingly critical subject of analysis. This paper examines Russia’s strategic vision and likely future actions by evaluating current geopolitical trends alongside historical patterns of Russian behaviour. This investigation will employ a realist lens to explain the underlying motivations driving Russian foreign policy and its pursuit of geopolitical expansion. The paper will focus on two principal areas: the potential outcomes of the Russia–Ukraine war and their implications for Russia’s efforts to counter NATO, and Russia’s expanding ambitions in the Arctic, a region of growing strategic and economic significance. While not exhaustive, this study highlights the central dynamics shaping Russia’s long-term geopolitical posture. It concludes with policy recommendations aimed at addressing the challenges posed by Russia’s increasingly assertive role on the world stage.